2018 QB Sleepers & Busts
Alex Smith, Redskins
Smith is coming off the most productive season of his NFL career, one in which he set career-best marks in passing yards, passing touchdowns and completion percentage. He also eclipsed 8.0 yards per pass attempt for the first time in his NFL career. Washington head coach Jon Gruden is a true offensive mastermind, and the Redskins would not have acquired Smith unless Gruden thought he could get a ton of productivity out of him.
Pat Mahomes, Chiefs
The biggest risk/reward pick among this year’s fantasy QBs, Mahomes could conceivably finish among the top 5 producers at the position in 2018. It’s hard to envision him completely flopping with a strong supporting cast and an experienced, offensive-minded Andy Reid as his head coach.
Mitch Trubisky, Bears
While new head coach Matt Nagy will have complete control of Chicago’s offense, the plan is to have former Oregon head coach and new Bears offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich be heavily involved with the development of Trubisky. The addition of WR Allen Robinson will also help immensely.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings
While many fantasy pundits will likely rank Cousins as a top-10 fantasy quarterback for 2018, this will be his first season as a full-time starter in which he won’t be out to prove his worth. He’ll instead be playing with a fully guaranteed $86-million contract, and he’ll have immense pressure to win.
Matt Ryan, Falcons
Ryan followed up his 2017 MVP season by failing to surpass 20 touchdown passes for the first time since his rookie season in 2008. He failed to throw more than two touchdown passes in any of the 18 games he played, including the playoffs.
Derek Carr, Raiders
Although Carr was expected to be sidelined for multiple games after suffering a back injury in Week 4, he ended up missing only Oakland’s Week 5 game against the Ravens. While the injury is at least partially to blame for his disappointing 2017, he’s likely to be vastly overvalued in 2018 fantasy drafts.